Tinubu Will lose Northern support ahead of the 2027
This perspective is largely rooted in perceptions of political loyalty and how past alliances have been managed.
During the lead-up to the APC presidential primaries in 2022, several influential figures indicated interest in the ticket, including Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, Rotimi Amaechi, Rochas Okorocha, and Ogbonnaya Onu.
At the time, no single aspirant had a decisive advantage, and various political calculations were ongoing.
There were strong indications that key Northern political stakeholders were aligning behind Ahmad Lawan as a consensus candidate. This position appeared to be reinforced when the then APC National Chairman publicly suggested that the party’s National Working Committee had agreed on a consensus arrangement. Additionally,
It was widely speculated that then-President Muhammadu Buhari was not inclined toward Tinubu’s candidacy.
However, events took a different turn due to the intervention of a prominent Northern political figure, widely believed to have played a pivotal role. He reportedly informed Tinubu of internal developments and mobilized Northern APC governors to support him.
Through strategic engagement and negotiation, this effort ultimately contributed to Tinubu securing the party’s nomination.
In recent times, concerns have emerged among some observers regarding how that support was acknowledged. There are claims that the individual who played this crucial role later faced political and legal challenges, which some interpret as a lack of reciprocity or loyalty. This perception has fueled dissatisfaction among certain groups, particularly among Northern youth, who view the situation through the lens of fairness and political ethics.
It is important to note that such sentiments, whether widespread or limited to specific groups, could influence political dynamics as the 2027 elections approach.
In regions where loyalty and trust are highly valued in political relationships, perceived betrayal can have lasting implications.
That said, electoral outcomes are shaped by a wide range of factors, including governance performance, economic conditions, party cohesion, and broader national interests.
While dissatisfaction in any region is significant, it remains one of many variables that will ultimately determine the political landscape in 2027.